Watch Industry SITREP - May 2025

More Tariffs, Al Capone’s Patek, CIA Recruiting Ads, The Pope’s Apple Watch, Rolex Rippers Getting Busted, & More 

By Benjamin Lowry

The SITREP or Situation Report is our monthly digest of news and events either directly or tangentially related to watches, espionage, the military, and national security, all coupled with our commentary. 

Welcome back. Memorial Day has come and gone, and it’s genuinely hard to believe we’re shutting the door on the month of May. Even though summer doesn’t officially start for a few more weeks, we’re already in the mood. With that in mind, it’s time to fire up the grill, break out your finest Aloha shirts, trim your Selleck-inspired mustaches, and dig into this month’s SITREP. Fair warning: Spice levels are high. 

The correct attitude to bring into this month’s SITREP.

These past few weeks have been wild, with a new American Pope and his watches, plenty of tariff talk, Rolex Rippers getting busted, unhappy Trump watch customers, Al Capone’s Patek Philippe up for auction, some cheeky CIA advertising aimed at Chinese officials, and a whole lot more. 

Know that we appreciate your submissions, and be sure to keep up the good work. If you have additional thoughts, feelings, or concerns, please feel free to flex your finger muscles down in the comments. 

The First American Pope Wears A Mystery Watch

The Pope wearing an Apple Watch during his first official mass.

On 08 May 2025, Leo XIV was selected as the first American pope, hailing from the Chicago area and, unfortunately, a White Sox fan. W.O.E. is not a religious platform, and what drags the artist formerly known as Cardinal Prevost into our purview is his choice in timepieces. First, the Pope has been wearing an Apple Watch. As we addressed in our open letter to VP JD Vance, someone as influential as the Pope is a constant target for hostile intelligence services who could easily use the Apple Watch on his wrist to clandestinely collect intelligence about the religious figure for nefarious purposes. As usual, our advice is to go with something analog or, at the very least, a “dumb” as opposed to a smart digital watch, potentially a Casio F91W, Timex Ironman, or a G-Shock. 

The new Pope presents an important watch mystery.

When he isn’t wearing his Apple Watch, the new Pope also uses an analog watch, which was initially identified by the “eagle” eyes of Reddit as a Wenger. However, closer inspection reveals key differences from the aforementioned Wenger model, including the presence of an apparent steel crown and a likely plastic bezel that is red all the way through as opposed to just on the insert, as is the case with the Wenger. At least for now, the mystery continues. 

The Pope’s watch isn’t a Wenger. Any thoughts from the community about what this could be?

While papal horology isn’t a core competency, using watches as a lens through which to view history and current events is, and we’d be interested to learn Leo XIV’s watch of choice. For world leaders, including the Pope, who commands the 1.4 billion followers of the Roman Catholic Church, watches are often tools of communication, intended to telegraph a message to constituents. If Leo XIV’s watch is indeed a cheap fashion watch, as it appears to be, the message is likely one of eschewing luxury in favor of modesty (and being matchy-matchy with the red bezel). If any of you think you know what the Pope’s analog watch really is, be sure to let us know with a snarky comment. 

CIA Recruitment Ad Aimed At Chinese Officials Uses A Watch

A screen capture from one of CIA’s recruitment videos showcases an AP Royal Oak that may or may not be genuine. (Photo Credit: CIA)

Over the past couple of years, CIA has released a series of slickly produced videos designed to message to foreign officials and members of foreign intelligence agencies to reach out to the CIA. The videos, which previously targeted Russia, are produced in each target country’s native tongue, as well as a keen understanding of the social dynamics in each country. Earlier this month, the Agency unveiled two more videos, this time intended for China, and intriguingly, a luxury watch makes an appearance.

In one of the videos, aimed at disenchanted Chinese youth, a young government official (who does not wear a watch) becomes disillusioned with his modest existence as the boss he serves enjoys a life of luxury to include fancy restaurants, tailored suits, and a stacked watch box, bolstered by what appears to be an Audemars Piguet Royal Oak. The video ends with the future asset reaching out to CIA. Once again, watches are tools of communication, in this case being used by CIA as an influential symbol of wealth, power, and prestige. 

Of course, the question is, are they working? According to W.O.E., they wouldn’t keep doing them if they weren't.  

Undercover Police Officers Apprehend “Rolex Rippers” In London 

21-year-old Yakob Harket was arrested after attempting to steal luxury watches from a pair of undercover officers in London. (Photo Credit: GB News)

Expertly playing the Uno Reverse Card, undercover law enforcement officers arrested a would-be luxury watch thief after posing as an affluent couple in London’s upscale Mayfair district. Captured on CCTV footage, a young man named Yakob Harket lunged for the female officer’s gold Patek Philippe watch before being apprehended by a team of awaiting plainclothes officers. Following Harket’s arrest, a further three members of a gang dedicated to luxury watch theft were later arrested, once again demonstrating the prevalence of organized watch theft not only in London but around the world. 

We’ve discussed how to travel safely with luxury watches, and in certain locations, like London, the right answer may be to simply leave the watch at home. As the secondary market prices for brands like Rolex, Audemars Piguet, and Patek Philippe remain high or even continue to rise, we can expect watch-related crime to increase. Luckily, in this case, the thief and his accomplices found themselves on the receiving end, but there are still numerous stories of real luxury watch robberies being reported every day around the world. If you’d like to keep your watch firmly fastened to your wrist, this is another reminder to maintain situational awareness and to never be a soft target. 

The Tariff Train Rolls On 

(Photo Credit: James Rupley/W.O.E.)

The month of May also presented no small amount of tariff drama, especially as it relates to Switzerland, the watchmaking powerhouse that was initially slapped with a 31% export tariff back in April. The “reciprocal tariffs” were quickly paused for Switzerland and many other countries for 90 days, but a blanket 10% tariff remains in place as affected nations negotiate with US officials. The Swiss watch industry, for which the United States is the most prominent export market, was quick to react, with Rolex initiating a 3% (on average) price increase. We have also been told informally that other brands have followed suit with an average of 3 to 4% increases across the board. This means that the overall tariff costs, 10% for now, are being split amongst the customer, dealers, and manufacturers, and not being completely passed on to the consumers as many feared. 

Swiss-made watches at all levels of the industry will feel the weight of whatever shakes down with tariffs. (Photo Credit: James Rupley/W.O.E.)

There is hope on the horizon, however. A couple of weeks ago, Swiss trade officials reportedly met with their US counterparts, and signs are allegedly positive for some kind of long-term deal coming together. What the actual number will be and how brands will respond is another story, but any noticeable price hike for our beloved Swiss watches isn’t going to be warmly received by the community. 

Al Capone’s Patek Philippe Up For Auction

Al Capone understood bling bling long before the term was even coined. (Watch Photo Credit: Sotheby’s)

While the majority of legendary gangster Al Capone’s possessions were confiscated by the federal government when he was arrested for tax evasion in 1929, his family managed to retain his Patek Philippe pocketwatch, which is due to go up for auction at Sotheby’s in June. Evidence of early watch nerd tendencies, Capone not only had the more pedestrian (likely gold) case swapped for solid platinum but also opted for a custom diamond-encrusted motif portraying his initials, “AC”, the work of Capone’s local Chicago jeweler. Somewhere along the way, the watch also lost its minute hand, but we feel the additional bling more than compensates. 

Capone’s custom Patek Philippe. (Photo Credit: Sotheby’s)

Kidding aside, it’s intriguing to note a watch from the roaring twenties undergoing the diamond “bust down” treatment almost a century before rappers pretending to be gangsters adopted the trend in the early 2000s. We’ve commented on some of the ethical dilemmas of collecting watches with historically challenging provenance before, but with a dedicated community of modern-day fans who revere Capone as a hero, we would imagine the gangster’s Patek will exceed its pre-auction estimate of $80,000 to $160,000. The last time the watch was sold, back in 2021, it went for $229,900. 

Trump Watch Controversy

Chinese billionaire Justin Sun received a $100k Trump watch as a gift.

We love watches of all shapes and sizes and generally try not to judge people for their watch choices. That said, it's hard to get behind the Trump watch fiasco and continued controversy.   

At President Trump’s recent meme coin event, a black-tie gala for 220 of the top holders of Trump’s cryptocurrency, Chinese crypto billionaire Justin Sun says he was gifted a Trump watch worth $100,000 in recognition of his status at the top of the meme coin leaderboard. 

Sun after receiving the gold Trump watch.

The watch was likely the Victory Tourbillon announced along with the brand back in September. Priced at precisely $100k with what appears to be an active “add to cart” button, the Victory Tourbillon offers a solid 18k gold case and bracelet and a tourbillon caliber of questionable origin, while each of the 147 limited examples is adorned with a “...personalized message, courtesy of President Trump”. In politics, intelligence, and business, giving watches as gifts can be complicated. We’ve commented on the use of luxury watches as bribes and operational gifts, and also discussed the realities for CIA Officers accepting watches as gifts. In any case, we hope Sun is happy with his new watch.

(Photo Credit: First Alert 4)

According to reporting from First Alert 4 in St. Louis, MO, at least one customer is unhappy with the Trump watch he purchased for his wife, which arrived without the letter “T” from the Trump wordmark. The “rump” watch in question is an otherwise shining example of one of the brand’s female-oriented models known as the Pink Inauguration First Lady. Any brand, from the most nascent microbrand to an industry leader like Rolex, can make a mistake, but we can’t help but wonder whether the quality control where the Trump watches are being made isn’t quite up to snuff despite the $680 price tag for this particular reference. 

Tudor Marketing Video Highlights Fire Captain Asha Wagner

In episode seven of Tudor’s Daring Jobs series, fire captain, hazmat specialist, scuba diver, and friend of W.O.E. and former W.O.E. contributor, Asha Wagner, wears the Pelagos 39 while combatting flames. We’ve said it before, but Tudor is the modern luxury tool watch leader, and partnering with real people like Asha who live the Use Your Tools ethos only on a daily basis only drives the point home. 

Final Thoughts

At W.O.E., watches will always be at the core of what we do, whether the focus is on an actual watch or we’re using watches as a lens to examine other events. You might think those parameters would be limiting, but we’re proud to say that we’ve reached the point with the SITREP series where there are so many great stories that one of the biggest hurdles is deciding which to include in the final version. May was no exception, with continued tariff drama, the new Pope’s mystery watch, a blinged-out Al Capone Patek, even more Trump watch shenanigans, undercover Rolex Ripper bustin’, and more. That’s it for this month. Until next time, Use Your Tools. 

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