Inside the Counterfeit Watch Trade - Hunting “Superclones” in Dubai

Exploring the Hidden Economy Behind High-End Replica Watches

I found myself being ushered by two men with broken English up a back stairwell deep in the souk, past racks of cheap electronics and unmarked doors, to a shop with no sign or storefront. After entering a small windowless room, the second man locked the door behind us. I was glad to have former Navy SEAL Robert Huberty by my side, not because I was worried for my personal safety, Dubai is one of the safest cities in the world, but because Rob is a watch nerd, a real watch nerd.

We were taking a break from the glitz and glamour of Dubai Watch Week to explore another parallel industry: the counterfeit watch industry. Likely a byproduct of my career at CIA, I have always been fascinated by the darker side of human systems. As I transitioned into luxury watches, that operational curiosity followed.

Hunting for Superclones

I am convinced you can buy anything in Dubai, as long as you have enough money and know the right people. It’s a coin-operated city. You put in money, and things happen.

The goal was to find a so-called “superclone,” the highest tier of counterfeit watches that claim to mirror genuine models down to the weight, finishing, and movement. According to internet lore, the superclones are so good that even an expert watchmaker can’t distinguish them from the real thing. Rob was wearing his (very real) modern Rolex “Panda” Daytona, reference 126500, which was helpful to compare to the counterfeit watches in question. While I still consider myself an aspiring watch nerd, Rob had the exposure and interest to more accurately assess how “real” the fakes were.

After small talk and customary offers for tea, cases began appearing from drawers, backpacks, and hidden compartments. The sellers ran their script refined over thousands of transactions. As we looked through the watches, Rob quickly dismissed several, noting the discrepancies.

The cheap “tourist fakes” were good enough to pass scrutiny in a dimly lit bar, but to an even novice eye (me), they were imperfect. The precious metals “gold” and “platinum” watches were quickly discounted due to their weight. But several watches immediately stood out, specifically steel Rolex references, including a Daytona, and a Patek Nautilus in steel, reference 5726A-001, the authentic version of which retails for over $60k and more than double that figure on the secondary market. The weight, finishing, and even the movement were close, with Rob remarking that several of them would have fooled him. The price for the super clones is $1,500 to $2,000, and they came complete with a fake box and papers with real store information on them. 

Rob holding a Patek Nautilus reference 5726A-001 Superclone.

Realistically, would these fool a certified Rolex or Patek Philippe watchmaker if they took them apart? Unlikely, but I would have felt confident wearing one back to Dubai Watch Week, with the vast majority of watch enthusiasts unlikely to be able to distinguish between the two without a more in-depth inspection.  

Note the fake watch box with a real store name and address. Wild.

Dubai - Fake it Till You Make It

In a previous Dispatch (read HERE), I wrote about the obscene displays of wealth that are commonplace in Dubai, and the United Arab Emirates indeed has a concentration of money at magnitudes most people cannot fathom. But wealth in Dubai is also performative, and not always what it seems. Entire businesses exist solely to rent the appearance of success, Ferraris and yachts leased by the hour for Instagram reels, penthouse apartments used as backdrops for photo shoots, even private jets that never leave the tarmac, hired purely for content. A parallel “fake it till you make it” economy thrives alongside real money, driven by aspirational entrepreneurs playing a role. Just the day prior, we partied on a rented yacht for a relatively affordable price. 

The watch world is no exception. According to the men at the store, many of the people buying the watches are expats living in Dubai, and they want something close to the real thing. The line between genuine success and staged affluence is often intentionally blurred, and that ambiguity is an essential aspect of the ecosystem.

The Dubai Souk or bazaar, located in the Deira district, a short taxi ride north of downtown Dubai along Dubai Creek, is a stark contrast to the modern construction of the rest of the city. The Souk traces its origins to the early 1900s when Persian and Indian merchants established jewelry shops along the city’s historic trading routes, and today, it is a dense marketplace of narrow alleys lined with dozens of shops displaying vast quantities of gold jewelry and trinkets. Like most modern souks in the Middle East, it is a fascinating intersection of overpriced goods curated for tourists and a genuine center of commerce where traders and locals conduct real business.

The Counterfeit Watch Supply Chain

Speaking with the men selling the watches, they were fairly open. The watches themselves were purchased directly from the manufacturers in China and were on a spectrum, the cheapest starting around $200 (negotiable, of course). The shopkeepers noted Rob’s real Daytona and said that it was fairly common for people to visit and buy watches with the real thing on their wrist. The customer base included everyone from standard tourists to expats and resellers.

Based on our discussion, Dubai has increased enforcement against counterfeit goods over the past few years through stricter trademark laws and customs inspections. In 2025 alone, Dubai Customs reportedly seized more than 35 tonnes of smuggled and counterfeit goods in one operation and reported 68 additional seizures worth roughly $11.5 million, including luxury watches. Local sellers insisted that authorities had cracked down heavily in recent months, with steeper fines. That may be true, but if two gringos could find the shops with minimal effort, it is safe to assume the local services know exactly where they are as well and tolerate it to some extent. 

Daniel and Christy Kinahan, leaders of the Irish Kinahan cartel and subjects of multi million-dollar US bounties, were photographed attending a 2025 MMA event in Dubai, marking their first confirmed public sighting in years. (Photo: Bellingcat)

Dubai operates on a system of thresholds. Certain activities are aggressively prosecuted, while others are tolerated as long as they remain discreet and do not threaten the broader economic ecosystem. What could be deemed as illicit or ethical activity is tolerated to a point, as long as it stays below a certain threshold. As an example, just last week, photographs surfaced of the leaders of an Irish organized crime syndicate, known as the Kinahan Cartel, attending a mixed martial arts event in Dubai. This is despite comprehensive US sanctions and $5 million rewards for their arrests, still in place nearly a decade after their relocation to Dubai. 

A Parallel Industry Bigger than the Real One?

The global counterfeit watch industry operates at a scale that potentially eclipses the legitimate luxury market. An estimated 30 to 40 million fake watches enter circulation each year, compared to roughly one million genuine Rolexes produced annually, meaning there are likely more fake Rolexes on wrists worldwide than authentic pieces. Largely produced in Asia, the watches are distributed globally through both open markets, over the internet, and via more discreet channels.

W.O.E. wearing a (real) vintage Tudor Submariner.

Not a Victimless Crime

To be very clear, this article is not an endorsement of the counterfeit watch industry, and I do not believe there is any situation where someone should wear a counterfeit watch.

At a minimum, counterfeit watches are intellectual property theft, exploiting designs, trademarks, and brand equity built over decades at enormous cost. The counterfeit supply chain is frequently linked to organized crime, money laundering, and labor exploitation. While some counterfeit watch buyers were never going to purchase the real thing, the scale of the market distorts pricing and erodes trust for legitimate businesses and collectors who now must assume skepticism as the default.

In the Souk, ain’t nothing you can’t have, for a price.

The Authenticity Crisis

When you get to superclones, the implications for the broader watch industry are more serious. It makes me wonder how many people have paid real money for a not-so-real watch at the local pawn shop or jewelry store. These high-end fakes present an opportunity that an unscrupulous bad actor could easily exploit to take advantage of an unwitting buyer.

For Rob and me, two people who are passionate about (real) watches, the counterfeits undermine confidence in authenticity. The idea that we could shell out a small fortune for something that is not genuine is terrifying. The cumulative effect for the industry is a market that is less transparent and less trustworthy. Not only do you have to trust the person you are buying from, but you have to trust that they are experts in determining authenticity. Recently, there have been several controversies of “well respected” watch dealers selling fakes or “Franken” watches, whether they were witting or just careless is impossible to determine. 

Final Thoughts

If Dubai Watch Week is the official story of the watch industry, this is the footnote many in the industry would rather ignore. If I had told attendees I was going to look for fake watches, I would have received a (well-earned) look of disgust. 

That said, I believe it is necessary to understand the system that exists just outside the polished booths and brand presentations. Inside that small room, this was not about buying a fake watch. It was about seeing how the global counterfeit machine actually works in the real world. Still, I could not leave empty-handed. In a city built on contradictions, the fake watch market is not an anomaly; it is a mirror. 

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